ISEA Employment Report
Job Growth in California Stagnates
Los Angeles County and Inland Empire Appear Patchy while Oakland Region Remains Idling
For the last month of 2013, a University of Redlands Institute for Spatial Economic Analysis (ISEA) study finds the overall year-over-year job growth in California remains in a similar pattern compared to November 2013. Silicon Valley and Fairfield are still leading the pack in growth. The Sacramento area, Orange County and San Diego County continue a steady pace of growth. Los Angeles County has joined Inland Empire to show the patchy pattern with near half of the region showing idling. In Northern California, Fresno has stepped out of the idling status by showing moderate job growth this month. However, Oakland still appears idling with no significant improvement in December 2013.
The overall month-over-month job growth in Southern California appears idling with almost the whole region stepping into the yellow (idling status) zone and only a few scattered spots in Inland Empire still showing positive job growth in December 2013. The overall month-over-month job growth in Northern California still appears idling with only a few locations showing positive job growth in December 2013 including the scattered areas near Fairfield, Modesto, Madera, San Francisco, San Rafael and Sacramento. The surrounding areas near Modesto, Merced, Visalia, Salinas and Napa still remain in the orange-red zone (negative job growth). Visalia, Sonora and Stockton, where there had been positive job growth in November 2013, have started showing significant job losses in December 2013.
Year-over-Year Metro Market Findings in Southern California
- The year-over-year job growth in Riverside and San Bernardino counties has slightly improved this month with the average job growth rate increased from 0.87% in November 2013 to 1.14% in December 2013.
- The region still appears patchy. Significant job growth (more than 3%) appears in Crafton, El Casco, Belltown, the area above Guasti and a small area south to Victorville. The idling regions concentrate in the central locations of the region such as Highland, Redlands, Pedley, Glen Avon, Guasti, Sun City and Corona. A small area south of Edgemont, which had seen moderate job losses last month, has stepped back to the idling status in December 2013.
LOS ANGELES COUNTY
- The year-over-year job growth in Los Angeles County has decreased this month with the average job growth rate dropping from 1.7% in November 2013 to 1.16% in December 2013.
- Job growth in Los Angeles County has stepped back to the patchy pattern where locations with moderate to significant job growth are next to the idling areas. Significant job growth areas have shrunk to only a few locations including Rowland Heights, Walnut, Downey, Long Beach, Burbank, Glendale, Calabasas, the area west of Beverly Hills, the area west of Cerritos and the area west of San Fernando. Cerritos and the small pocket between Seal Beach and Cypress still remain in the orange zone (negative job growth) shedding jobs in December. In addition, the orange area south of Los Angeles has expanded to the surrounding locations and area south to San Fernando has started shedding jobs in December.
- The year-over-year job growth in Orange County has increased this month with the average job growth rate increasing from 2.16% in November 2013 to 2.44% in December 2013.
- The whole county still appears green (positive job growth) except for a small location near the mountain area in the eastern region of the county still showing moderate job loss (-3% to -1%). Significant job growth (more than 3%) has expanded to more locations including Brea, Placentia, Atwood, Anaheim, Villa Park, Garden Grove, Midway City, Los Alamitos, Rossmoor, Cypress, Sunset Beach, Capistrano Beach, San Clemente, Irvine and the area east of Irvine, the large area east of Anaheim until the mountain area, the whole region between Portola Hills and Laguna Miguel. The rest of the region shows 1% to 3% moderate job growth in December 2013.
SAN DIEGO COUNTY
- The year-over-year job growth in San Diego County has no significant change this month with the average job growth rate increasing from 1.77% in November 2013 to 1.81% in December 2013.
- Most regions in the county appear light green (1% to 3% job growth) with the dark green zone (more than 3% significant job growth) showing in Fallbrook, Jesmond Dene, Del Dios, La Presa, Vista, Alpine, Bonita, La Mesa, and the region between Moreno and El Cajon. On the other hand, the yellow zone (-1% to 1% job growth) has shrunk to San Luis Rey and areas close to Coronado and Bonita. No locations shed jobs in December 2013.
The researchers combined today’s data release on employment by industry from the California Employment Development Department with business pattern data by zip code and industry from the U.S. Census Bureau to arrive at their projected values. The researchers point out that, given the data available to them, their projected values are only rough approximations of the true values, and that accuracy is higher for counties with larger populations. Despite those shortcomings, the observed patterns should still be helpful for decision makers in politics, businesses and organizations to determine where to best direct their efforts.
Author: Bing Bai
Faculty Fellow at the Institute for Spatial Economic Analysis
University of Redlands, School of Business
Media Contact: Johannes Moenius,
Director, Institute for Spatial Economic Analysis
University of Redlands, School of Business