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ISEA Employment Report

ISEA Employment Report Dec. 2013 inline image

Job Growth in California Continues

Inland Empire, Fresno, and Oakland Regions are Lagging Behind

For the month of November 2013, the University of Redlands Institute for Spatial Economic Analysis (ISEA) study finds the overall year-over-year job growth in California continues with most areas showing moderate to significant job growth. Silicon Valley and Fairfield are still leading the pack in growth. Los Angeles County has improved to a great extent with almost the whole county showing positive job growth and a few locations showing more than 3% significant job increase. Modesto and Sacramento areas have stepped out of idling or negative job growth, instead showing positive job growth in November 2013. Most locations in Fresno and Oakland still appear idling; even worse, Santa Cruz is still shedding jobs last month. On the other hand, Inland Empire has slowed down the job growth pace with almost half of the region showing idling.

The overall month-over-month job growth in Southern California appears patchy with expanding green (positive job growth) locations embedded in the yellow (idling status) zone in November 2013. Most areas in Orange County and San Diego County still appear idling this month while with more areas showing moderate job increase. The overall month-over-month job growth in Northern California still appears idling with only a few locations showing positive job growth in November 2013 including the scattered areas near Fairfield, Stockton, Modesto, Sonora, Fremont, San Jose, San Francisco, Visalia and Sacramento. Most areas in Fresno, Merced, Madera, Santa Cruz, Salinas and the surrounding areas near Stockton and Modesto still remain in the orange-red zone (negative job growth). Napa, where there had been positive job growth in October 2013, has started showing significant job losses in November 2013

Year-over-Year Metro Market Findings in Southern California


INLAND EMPIRE

  • The year-over-year job growth in Riverside and San Bernardino counties has decreased this month with the average job growth rate dropping from 1.42% in October 2013 to 0.87% in November 2013.
  • The region, where had shown mostly positive job growth in October 2013, has added more yellow zone (idling status) in November 2013. Significant job growth (more than 3%) appears in Crafton, El Casco, Edgemont, Woodcrest, Chino Hills and a small area south to Victorville. The idling regions have expanded to more locations such as Adelanto, Desert Hot Springs, Perris, Romoland, Hemet, Norco, Upland, Pedley, Colton, and Redlands etc. A small area south of Edgemont has started shedding jobs last month.

LOS ANGELES COUNTY

  • The year-over-year job growth in Los Angeles County has increased this month with the average job growth rate increasing from 1.45% in October 2013 to 1.7% in November 2013.
  • Job growth in Los Angeles County has shown improvement although there are still locations showing idling status in November 2013. Significant job growth areas have expanded to a few more locations including Rowland Heights, Walnut, Whittier, Downey and the surrounding areas of Santa Clarita. Cerritos, the small area south of Los Angeles and the small pocket between Seal Beach and Cypress still remain in the orange zone (negative job growth) shedding jobs last month.

ORANGE COUNTY

  • The year-over-year job growth in Orange County has slightly increased this month with the average job growth rate increasing from 2% in October 2013 to 2.16% in November 2013.
  • The whole county still appears green (positive job growth) except for a small location near the mountain area in the eastern region of the county still showing moderate job loss (-3% to -1%). More than 3% job growth appears in the following locations: Los Alamitos, Cypress, Rossmoor, Capistrano Beach, an area close to the north border, and the large area east to Anaheim until the mountain area. The rest of the region shows 1% to 3% moderate job growth in November 2013.

SAN DIEGO COUNTY

  • The year-over-year job growth in San Diego County has no significant change this month with the average job growth rate dropping from 1.80% in October 2013 to 1.77% in November 2013.
  • Most regions in the county appear light green (1% to 3% job growth) with the dark green zone (more than 3% significant job growth) remaining in Fallbrook, Jesmond Dene, Del Dios, La Presa, and the region between Moreno and El Cajon. In addition, Vista has been added to the dark green zone and Alpine has stepped back to the moderate job growth. On the other hand, the yellow zone (-1% to 1% job growth) has shrunk to San Luis Rey, Lemon Grove, area between Lake San Marcos and Carlsbad, area close to Coronado and Bonita. No locations shed jobs in November 2013.

METHODOLOGY

The researchers combined today’s data release on employment by industry from the California Employment Development Department with business pattern data by zip code and industry from the U.S. Census Bureau to arrive at their projected values. The researchers point out that, given the data available to them, their projected values are only rough approximations of the true values, and that accuracy is higher for counties with larger populations. Despite those shortcomings, the observed patterns should still be helpful for decision makers in politics, businesses and organizations to determine where to best direct their efforts.

Author: Bing Bai
Faculty Fellow, Institute for Spatial Economic Analysis
University of Redlands, School of Business
Bing_Bai@redlands.edu  

Media Contact: Johannes Moenius 
Director, Institute for Spatial Economic Analysis
University of Redlands, School of Business
909-557-8161
isea@redlands.edu


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