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ISEA Employment Report

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Job Growth Is Not Over for the Inland Region of Southern California

Warning Signs Still Appear in the Inland Empire as well as in the Sacramento Region

For the month of August 2013, a study from the University of Redlands Institute for Spatial Economic Analysis (ISEA) finds the overall year-over-year job growth in California still remains positive but at a less accelerated rate. Most areas still show moderate (1% to 3%) to significant (more than 3%) job growth including Orange County, Los Angeles County, Stockton, Fairfield, Santa Rosa, Yuba City, Salinas, San Jose and San Francisco area. However employment data still shows warning signs for the Inland Empire although the overall job growth rate has slightly increased in August 2013. In addition, area of Oakland still remains in idling status (-1% to 1% job growth) and the Sacramento area is getting worse with most areas showing idling and scattered locations even shedding jobs (negative job growth) in August 2013. On the other hand, the northern area and the south border of San Diego County and most regions in Modesto and Fresno have stepped into the idling status. The scattered locations surrounding Modesto and Fresno have even started shedding jobs in August 2013.

The overall month-over-month job growth in most regions in Southern California still remains idling in August 2013, except for the Inland Empire where there is a sharp contrast to the job growth in July 2013. With only one small area in Palm Springs still shedding jobs, all the other red locations (negative job growth) in the Inland Empire have disappeared in August 2013. Instead, almost half of the region shows moderate job growth although the idling zones are embedded in the area, which makes the whole region still appear patchy. The overall month-over-month job growth in Northern California still appears idling in August 2013. Job growth in Stockton, southern Modesto and Visalia, where there had been significant job losses (more than 3%) in July 2013, the situation has now improved in August 2013 by adding more green zones showing moderate to significant job increase. On the other hand, Fresno, Fairfield and Napa, areas that had shown moderate job growth in July 2013, has stepped into the idling status in August 2013. In addition, Hanford and Santa Cruz have started shedding jobs in August 2013.

Year-over-Year Metro Market Findings in Southern California


INLAND EMPIRE
  • The year-over-year job growth in Riverside and San Bernardino counties has slightly increased this month with the average job growth rate increasing 0.36% in July 2013 to 0.67% in August 2013.
  • The whole region still appears patchy with positive job growth areas expanding to more places including Victorville, Rialto, Fontana, Upland, Yucaipa, Cherry Valley, Moreno, Chino Hills, Edgemont, Woodcrest, El Cerrito, Canyon Lake, Sun City, San Jacinto, Hemet, East Hemet, Palm Springs, Cathedral City, Palm Desert, La Quinta, Yucca Valley, Joshua Tree, Twentynine Palms, Desert Hot Springs and the large region between Aguanga and Murrieta. The small region between Corona and Mira Loma and the region around Glen Avon and Pedley still remain in the red zone (-1% to -3% job losses) shedding jobs in August 2013.

LOS ANGELES COUNTY

  • The year-over-year job growth in Los Angeles County has slightly decreased this month with the average job growth rate dropping from 1.61% in July 2013 to 1.35% in August 2013.
  • The dark green zone (more than 3% job growth) has shrunk to a few locations such as Calabasas, Downey, the area between Rowland Heights and Chino Hills, Walnut, the area west to Beverly Hills, and Burbank and a few other scattered small locations. On the other hand, the yellow zone (-1% to 1% job growth) has expanded to more areas including locations close to South Pasadena, Beverly Hills, Santa Monica, Compton, Rowland Heights, Vincent, Pasadena, San Gabriel and an area close to the border of Ventura County. Cerritos, where there was negative job growth in July 2013, has now stepped back to the idling status. However, the small location south of Los Angeles and the small pocket between Seal Beach and Cypress still remain in the red zone (negative job growth) shedding jobs in August 2013.

ORANGE COUNTY

  • The year-over-year job growth in Orange County has slightly increased in August with the average job growth rate increasing 2.08% in July 2013 to 2.33% in August 2013. 
  • The whole county still appears green (positive job growth) except for a small location near the mountain area showing moderate job loss (-3% to -1%). The dark green zone (more than 3% job growth) appears in the following locations: the area close to the north border of the county, the area east to Atwood, the area east to Anaheim, Garden Grove, Villa Park, area between Irvine and Newport Beach, Portola Hills, Dana Point, San Clemente, and the narrow long region east to Rancho Santa Margarita. The rest of the county shows 1% to 3% moderate job growth in August 2013.

SAN DIEGO COUNTY

  • The year-over-year job growth in San Diego County has slightly decreased this month with the average job growth rate dropping from 1.55% in July 2013 to 1.15% in August 2013.
  • Most regions in the county appear light green (1% to 3% job growth) with dark green zone (more than 3% significant job growth) shrinking to a small area around Lemon Grove only. On the other hand, the yellow zone (-1% to 1% job growth) has expanded to almost half of the region in the northern area of the county including Poway, Rancho Santa Fe, San Luis Rey, area east to Del Mar, the area east to Escondido, and a large area between Lake San Marcos and Carlsbad, together with the area near the south border, the area between Casa De Oro and La Presa, the area east to Bonita, a small area east to Coronado, and downtown San Diego.

METHODOLOGY

The researchers combined today’s data release on employment by industry from the California Employment Development Department with business pattern data by zip code and industry from the U.S. Census Bureau to arrive at their projected values. The researchers point out that, given the data available to them, their projected values are only rough approximations of the true values, and that accuracy is higher for counties with larger populations. Despite those shortcomings, the observed patterns should still be helpful for decision makers in politics, businesses and organizations to determine where to best direct their efforts.

About the University of Redlands Institute for Spatial Economic Analysis (ISEA)

The Institute for Spatial Economic Analysis (ISEA) serves regional, national and global business and government leaders in their needs to better understand how socio-economic phenomena affect their communities. A division of the University of Redlands School of Business, ISEA publishes ongoing, timely reports covering retail, employment, housing, logistics and other special topics. A key distinction is its ability to illustrate economic trends and patterns through the use of geo-spatial mapping techniques. In addition, ISEA’s ability to provide Zip code level analysis for many of its reports provides unprecedented detail. Current ISEA economic data and interactive maps may be found at http://isea.redlands.edu/.

Media Contact:
Johannes Moenius
909-557-8161
isea@redlands.edu


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