ISEA Employment Report
Is Job Growth Over for the Inland Region of Southern California?
Employment Data Shows Warning Signs for Inland Empire
For the month of July 2013, the University of Redlands Institute for Spatial Economic Analysis (ISEA) study finds the overall year-over-year job growth in California still remains positive with most areas showing moderate to significant job growth except for Inland Empire, Sacramento, and Oakland area. There is a sharp contrast in job growth in Southern California that Inland Empire region appears patchy with most areas showing yellow (idling) or red (shedding jobs) compared with Los Angeles County, Orange County, and San Diego County where most areas show moderate (1% to 3%) to significant (more than 3%) job growth. Northern California remains in a similar pattern that the coastal areas including San Francisco, San Jose, and Santa Cruz together with Stockton, Fairfield, Napa, Madera and Merced show more than 3% significant job growth. Almost all of Fresno shows positive job growth. However, the yellow zone (idling status) has expanded to more regions in Oakland and Sacramento in July 2013.
The overall month-over-month job growth in Southern California still remains idling (-1% to 1% job growth) in July 2013 with very limited locations showing positive job growth. Most job losses appear in the Inland Empire including central locations in San Bernardino County, Perris, eastern area in Palm Springs and the region at the south border to San Diego County. The overall month-over-month job growth in Northern California appears idling (-1% to 1% job growth) in July 2013 with some locations even showing significant job losses including Stockton, southern Modesto, and Visalia. The surrounding areas in Fresno, Hanford and Merced have started adding jobs in July 2013. However on the other hand, Sacramento, Auburn, Nevada City, San Jose, Santa Cruz and Salinas have stepped back to the idling status (-1% to 1% job growth).
Year-over-Year Metro Market Findings in Southern California
- The year-over-year job growth in Riverside and San Bernardino counties has decreased further this month with the average job growth rate dropping 0.62% in June 2013 to 0.36% in July 2013.
- The whole region appears yellow (idling) or red (negative job growth) with positive job growth areas shrinking to only a few places such as Victorville, Rialto, Muscoy, Yucaipa, Cherry Valley, Moreno, Chino Hills, San Jacinto, Palm Springs and Yucca Valley. In addition to Crafton, the only location showing negative job growth in June 2013, the following regions have started shedding jobs in July 2013 including Adelanto, El Casco, Belltown, Glen Avon, Pedley, Pomona, Corona, El Cerrito, Perris, Nuevo, Romoland, Sedco Hills, Thermal, small area north to Cathedral City, and a large region between El Cerrito and Alberhill.
LOS ANGELES COUNTY
- The year-over-year job growth in Los Angeles County has increased this month with the average job growth rate increasing 1.02% in June 2013 to 1.61% in July 2013.
- The overall job growth has picked up in July with more regions adding to the dark green zone (more than 3% job growth). Although most areas in the county show positive job growth, there are a few locations still showing idling status including the western area of Santa Clarita, eastern area of Palmdale, the surrounding area of San Fernando, and areas close to Avocado Heights, Compton, Hawthorne, Alhambra, Maywood, and Long Beach. Even worse, the three small areas including Cerritos, the small location south of Los Angeles and the small pocket between Seal Beach and Cypress still remain in the red zone (negative job growth).
- The year-over-year job growth in Orange County has slightly increased in July with an average job growth rate of 2.08% this month, compared to the job growth rate of 1.82% in June 2013.
- The whole county appears green (positive job growth) except for a small location near the mountain area still showing idling status (-1% to 1% job growth). Anaheim and the area between Westminster and Stanton have stepped out of idling status and started adding jobs in July. Even better, Orange, Garden Grove, Tustin, Villa Park, Irvine, Dana Point and San Clemente have started showing significant job growth (more than 3%) in July 2013.
SAN DIEGO COUNTY
- The year-over-year job growth in San Diego County has slightly increased this month as well with the average job growth rate increased 1.48% in June 2013 to 1.55% in July 2013.
- Most regions in the county appear light green (1% to 3% job growth) with dark green zone (more than 3% significant job growth) switching from Downtown San Diego to the region between La Presa and Lemon Grove and the region between Moreno and El Cajon. The yellow zone (-1% to 1% job growth) has shrunk to only a few locations including San Luis Rey, area between Vista and Carlsbad, area east to Escondido, area between Casa De Oro and La Presa, area east to Bonita and a small area east to Coronado.
The researchers combined today’s data release on employment by industry from the California Employment Development Department with business pattern data by zip code and industry from the U.S. Census Bureau to arrive at their projected values. The researchers point out that, given the data available to them, their projected values are only rough approximations of the true values, and that accuracy is higher for counties with larger populations. Despite those shortcomings, the observed patterns should still be helpful for decision makers in politics, businesses and organizations to determine where to best direct their efforts.
About the University of Redlands Institute for Spatial Economic Analysis (ISEA)
The Institute for Spatial Economic Analysis (ISEA) serves regional, national and global business and government leaders in their needs to better understand how socio-economic phenomena affect their communities. A division of the University of Redlands School of Business, ISEA publishes ongoing, timely reports covering retail, employment, housing, logistics and other special topics. A key distinction is its ability to illustrate economic trends and patterns through the use of geo-spatial mapping techniques. In addition, ISEA’s ability to provide Zip code level analysis for many of its reports provides unprecedented detail. Current ISEA economic data and interactive maps may be found at http://isea.redlands.edu/.