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ISEA Employment Report

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California Job Growth Slows Down Further

Year-over-Year Job Growth Drops Slightly
Month-over-Month Job Growth Shows Red Warning in Los Angeles County

For the month of May 2013, the University of Redlands Institute for Spatial Economic Analysis (ISEA) study finds the overall year-over-year job growth in California still remains positive with most areas showing moderate to significant job growth, although the growth rate has dropped further compared to March and April 2013. Northern California remains in a similar pattern that the coastal areas including San Francisco, San Jose, Santa Cruz and Salinas still show more than 3% significant job growth. In addition, Stockton and scattered areas in Fairfield, Napa and Hanford also appear more than 3% significant job growth. However, the surrounding regions in Visalia, Fresno, Yorba City, and Sacramento have started showing 1% to 3% job losses in May 2013. On the other hand, job numbers in Southern California continue to grow in most regions showing 1% to 3% moderate job growth, however with more areas showing idling status (-1% to 1% job growth) such as the northern area in San Diego County, the central region in Riverside County and scattered pockets in Los Angeles County. The dark green regions (more than 3% significant job growth) have further reduced to fewer small pockets in May compared to April 2013. In particular, Los Angeles County, where the central region had seen more than 3% job growth in April 2013, has stepped into a patchy pattern showing moderate (1% to 3%) or significant job increases (more than 3%) are next to areas showing idling (-1% to 1%) in May 2013.

The overall month-over-month job growth in Southern California still remains idling (-1% to 1% job growth) in May 2013 with very limited locations showing positive job growth. Even worse, the central region in Los Angeles County has started showing significant job losses (more than 3%) including Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, South Pasadena, Glendale, and Pasadena. The overall month-over-month job growth in Northern California has improved slightly although the whole region still appears idling (-1% to 1% job growth) in May. Santa Rosa, Fairfield, San Jose, a small area south to Sacramento and the surrounding areas in Modesto have stepped out of the idling status (-1% to 1% job growth) by showing moderate to significant job growth this month. Madera has started adding jobs. Santa Cruz, Salinas, Hanford and a small area in Stockton has further improved in May by showing more than 3% significant job growth. However a small pocket in Nevada City still remains in idling status (-1% to 1% job growth) in May.

Year-over-Year Metro Market Findings in Southern California

INLAND EMPIRE

  • The year-over-year job growth in Riverside and San Bernardino Counties has decreased further this month with the average job growth rate dropped from 1.57% in April 2013 to 0.96% in May 2013.
  • The whole region has started appearing patchy with the yellow regions (-1% to 1% job growth) expanding from Crafton, Indio, Romoland and Sedco Hills areas to Perris, Nuevo, Corona, Glen Avon, Belltown, Pedley, El Casco, Adelanto, Thermal and the area between El Cerrito and Alberhill. Dark green areas (more than 3% job growth) only appear in Edgemont, Woodcrest and Palm Desert in May.

LOS ANGELES COUNTY

  • The year-over-year job growth in Los Angeles County also decreased this month with the average job growth rate dropped from 1.97% in April 2013 to 1.13% in May 2013.
  • The large dark green zone (more than 3% job growth) concentrated in Calabasas, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, and Burbank in April have shrunk to only a few pockets in May. Instead, the whole county appears very patchy where the yellow areas (-1% to 1% job growth) have spread throughout the whole region. The small location south to Los Angeles and the small pocket between Seal Beach and Cypress are still shedding jobs. In addition, Cerritos has started shedding jobs in May.

ORANGE COUNTY

  • The year-over-year job growth in Orange County has dropped as well in May with an average job growth rate of 1.73% this month, slightly below the job growth rate of 1.93% in April 2013.
  • The whole county still appears green (positive job growth) however with fewer locations showing more than 3% job growth in May. The dark green areas (more than 3% job growth) only appear in Costa Mesa, Newport Beach, Portola Hills, Aliso Viejo, area close to the northern county border, area between Yorba Linda and Villa Park near the mountain area, and the narrow region east to Rancho Santa Margarita. On the other hand, Anaheim and the area between Westminster and Stanton still remain in idling status (-1% to 1% job growth) in May.

SAN DIEGO COUNTY

  • The year-over-year job growth in San Diego County has dropped further this month with the average job growth rate decreased from 1.98% in April 2013 to 1.59% in May 2013.
  • Most regions in the county still appear light green (1% to 3% job growth) with dark green zone (more than 3% significant job growth) shrinking to Downtown San Diego, Lemon Grove, Coronado, and a small area along I-5 close to coast. The yellow zone (-1% to 1% job growth) has expanded to most areas on the northern side of the county including Fallbrook, San Luis Rey, Rancho Santa Fe, area between Vista and Carlsbad, and area along Jesmond Dene and Del Dios.

METHODOLOGY

The researchers combined today’s data release on employment by industry from the California Employment Development Department with business pattern data by Zip code and industry from the U.S. Census Bureau to arrive at their projected values. The researchers point out that, given the data available to them, their projected values are only rough approximations of the true values, and that accuracy is higher for counties with larger populations. Despite those shortcomings, the observed patterns should still be helpful for decision makers in politics, businesses and organizations to determine where to best direct their efforts.

About the University of Redlands Institute for Spatial Economic Analysis (ISEA)

The Institute for Spatial Economic Analysis (ISEA) serves regional, national and global business and government leaders in their needs to better understand how socio-economic phenomena affect their communities. A division of the University of Redlands School of Business, ISEA publishes ongoing, timely reports covering retail, employment, housing, logistics and other special topics. A key distinction is its ability to illustrate economic trends and patterns through the use of geo-spatial mapping techniques. In addition, ISEA’s ability to provide Zip code level analysis for many of its reports provides unprecedented detail. Current ISEA economic data and interactive maps may be found at http://isea.redlands.edu/.

Media Contact
Johannes Moenius
909-557-8161
isea@redlands.edu

 


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