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ISEA Employment Report

ISEA Job Report May 2013

California Job Growth Remains in Slow Motion

Year-over-Year Job Growth Drops Slightly Again; All Large Counties Report Lower Growth Rates Compared to March 2013

For the month of April 2013, the University of Redlands Institute for Spatial Economic Analysis (ISEA) study finds the overall year-over-year job growth in California still remains positive with most areas showing moderate to significant job growth, although the growth rate has dropped compared to March 2013. Northern California remains in a similar pattern than the coastal areas including Santa Rosa, San Francisco, San Jose, Santa Cruz and Salinas still show more than 3% significant job growth although the dark green regions (more than 3% job growth) have shrunk compared to March 2013. In addition, Stockton and scattered areas in Fresno, Madera, and Merced also appear more than 3% significant job growth. However, most regions in Fairfield, Oakland, Fremont, and Sacramento have slowed down the growth pace by only showing 1% moderate job growth in April 2013. On the other hand, job numbers in Southern California continue growing with most regions showing 1% to 3% moderate job growth. The large dark green regions (more than 3% significant job growth) we had seen in Orange County, San Diego County, and Inland Empire last month have reduced to only a few small pockets in April. Instead, only the central regions in Los Angeles County remain with more than 3% significant job growth in April. There still appear locations showing idling status (-1% to 1% job growth) this month scattered in all counties.

The overall month-over-month job growth in Southern California still remains idling (-1% to 1% job growth) in April 2013 with very limited locations showing positive job growth. The regions near Beverly Hills, South Pasadena, and Burbank, and scattered locations in Ventura County, where there was 1% to 3% moderate job growth last month, have stepped back to idling status (-1% to 1% job growth) in April 2013. Even worse, the small areas near Beverly Hills, Pasadena, and San Jacinto have started shedding jobs this month. The overall month-over-month job growth in Northern California has improved slightly although the whole region still appears idling (-1% to 1% job growth) in April. Yuba City, Napa, Merced, Santa Cruz, most areas in Visalia, and the surrounding areas in Fresno have stepped out of the idling status (-1% to 1% job growth) by showing moderate to significant job growth this month. However Fairfield, where there was moderate job growth last month, has stepped back to the idling status (-1% to 1% job growth) in April. Madera still remains in dark red zone (more than 3% job loss). In addition, Nevada City has started shedding jobs in April.

Year-over-Year Metro Market Findings in Southern California

INLAND EMPIRE 

  • The year-over-year job growth in Riverside and San Bernardino Counties has decreased this month with the average job growth rate dropped from 2.05% in March 2013 to 1.57% in April 2013. 
  •  The whole region still appears green (positive job growth) however with less regions showing more than 3% significant job growth. Dark green areas (more than 3% job growth) only appear in Muscoy, Edgemont, Woodcrest, San Jacinto, Big Bear Lake, Cathedral City, and the area between Adelanto and Mountain View in April. Glen Avon, Pedley, Woodcrest, Thermal, Devote, and Adelanto have stepped out of idling status by showing positive job growth this month. However, Romoland still remains idling. In addition Crafton, Indio, and Sedco Hills have started showing idling status (-1% to 1% job growth) in April.

LOS ANGELES COUNTY

  • The year-over-year job growth in Los Angeles County has dropped as well in April with an average job growth rate of 1.97% this month, slightly below the job growth rate of 2.13% in March 2013.
  • The whole county remains the similar pattern with the dark green (more than 3% job growth) regions concentrated in Calabasas, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Burbank, Santa Clarita, and the border area to Orange County. La Verne, Lomita, and Westmont have been added to the dark green zone (more than 3% job growth). However a small location south to Los Angeles has started shedding jobs in April.

ORANGE COUNTY

  • The year-over-year job growth in Orange County has also decreased this month with the average job growth rate dropped from 2.41% in March 2013 to 1.93% in April 2013.
  • Most dark green areas (more than 3% job growth) have disappeared this month. Instead, the whole county appears light green this month (1% to 3% moderate job growth) with only a few locations still showing more than 3% significant job growth including the area close to the northern county border, the area between Anaheim and Garden Grove, areas close to Orange, Tustin, Costa Mesa, Newport Beach, Portola Hills, Aliso Viejo, San Juan Capistrano, Dana Point, and the narrow region east to Rancho Santa Margarita. In addition Anaheim and the area between Westminster and Stanton have stepped into idling status (-1% to 1% job growth) in April.

SAN DIEGO COUNTY

  • The year-over-year job growth in San Diego County has a significant drop this month with the average job growth rate decreased from 2.60% in March 2013 to 1.98% in April 2013.
  • Most regions in the county appear light green (1% to 3% job growth) with dark green zone (more than 3% significant job growth) shrinking to only a few pockets such as Downtown San Diego, La Mesa, Lemon Grove, La Presa, Coronado, Imperial Beach, a small area along I-15, and a small area along I-5. Areas close to San Luis Rey and Carlsbad have started showing idling status (-1% to 1% job growth) in April.

METHODOLOGY

The researchers combined today’s data release on employment by industry from the California Employment Development Department with business pattern data by Zip code and industry from the U.S. Census Bureau to arrive at their projected values. The researchers point out that, given the data available to them, their projected values are only rough approximations of the true values, and that accuracy is higher for counties with larger populations. Despite those shortcomings, the observed patterns should still be helpful for decision makers in politics, businesses and organizations to determine where to best direct their efforts.

About the University of Redlands Institute for Spatial Economic Analysis (ISEA)

The Institute for Spatial Economic Analysis (ISEA) serves regional, national and global business and government leaders in their needs to better understand how socio-economic phenomena affect their communities. A division of the University of Redlands School of Business, ISEA publishes ongoing, timely reports covering retail, employment, housing, logistics and other special topics. A key distinction is its ability to illustrate economic trends and patterns through the use of geo-spatial mapping techniques. In addition, ISEA’s ability to provide Zip code level analysis for many of its reports provides unprecedented detail. Current ISEA economic data and interactive maps may be found at http://isea.redlands.edu/.

Media Contact
Johannes Moenius
909-557-8161
isea@redlands.edu

 


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