ISEA Employment Report
California Job Growth Remains Steady
Silicon Valley and Bay Area Are Still Leading The Pack;
Southern California Shows Moderate, Even Growth
For the month of December 2012, the University of Redlands Institute for Spatial Economic Analysis (ISEA) study finds the overall year-over-year job growth in California remains steady with most areas showing moderate job growth. Northern California remains the similar pattern that the coastal areas including Santa Rosa, San Francisco, San Jose, Santa Cruz, and Stockton still show more than 3% significant job growth. In addition, Fairfield and Salinas have improved with the whole region showing more than 3% significant job growth. Job growth in Sacramento area has also improved with the whole area showing 1% to 3% moderate job growth. Merced, Madera, and the surrounding area of Visalia are still shedding jobs in December. Yuba City, Nevada City, Napa, and Modesto area stay idling status. On the other hand, Southern California remains steady pattern with most regions showing 1% to 3% moderate job growth although there are still scattered pockets remaining in idling status. Job growth in Bakersfield area has stepped back to the yellow zone (-1% to 1% job growth) compared with that the whole region showed 1% to 3% moderate job growth in November. Santa Barbara and a few scattered locations throughout Southern California still show more than 3% significant job growth. The Southern area of San Diego County, northern area of Orange County, and the city of San Bernardino still remain idling (-1% to 1% job growth).
The overall month-over-month job growth in Southern California has stepped back to the idling status (-1% to 1% job growth) compared to November 2012 where light green zones (1% to 3% job growth) stretch throughout Inland Empire and scatter in the other areas as well. Almost the whole region appears yellow (-1% to 1% job growth) in December 2012 except for a few very small pockets in the city of Riverside, Ventura County, El Centro, and Palm Springs (1% to 3% moderate job increase). The surrounding area in Bakersfield still remains in red zone shedding jobs (more than 3% job loss). The overall month-over-month job growth in Northern California appears mixed pattern in December with most areas showing idling (-1% to 1% job growth) and a few locations showing either 1% to 3% moderate job losses such as Santa Rosa and Napa or more than 3% significant job losses including Salinas, Visalia, and northern area to Merced. However, Fairfield, Stockton, Nevada City, and Madera have started adding jobs this month.
Year-over-Year Metro Market Findings in Southern California
- The year-over-year job growth in Riverside and San Bernardino Counties has increased moderately this month with an average job increase rate of 1.08%.
- The whole region appears green (1% to 3% moderate job growth) with a few pockets showing more than 3% significant job growth including Upland, Guasti, Chino, Glen, Mira Loma, Edgemont, Woodcrest, Perris, and Victorville. Areas near Blue Jay and Big Bear Lake have stepped out of idling status showing 1% to 3% moderate job growth in December. However, Muscoy, El Casco, and Wildomar still remain idling (-1% to 1% job growth) in December.
LOS ANGELES COUNTY
- The year-over-year job growth in Los Angeles County has remained steady this month with an average job increase rate of 1.81%.
- The whole region still appears green in December 2012 although the yellow zones (-1% to 1% job growth) have stretched out from the center to the edge such that Avocado Heights, Gardena, Lomita, and Cerritos have been added to the yellow zone together with San Fernando, Maywood, and eastern area of Palmdale where still remain idling. Dark green areas (more than 3% job increase), which were concentrated in Beverly Hills, Burbank and South Pasadena area in November, have shrunk in that area with more scattered dark green pockets adding to the region such as La Verne, South Pasadena, and Walnut. The other dark green locations either stay the same or switch around slightly such as Santa Clarita area, Burbank and Pasadena area.
- The year-over-year job growth in Orange County has slowed down slightly this month with an average job growth rate of 0.97%.
- Although the whole county still appears green, fewer locations show more than 3% significant job growth in December. For instant, a few large dark green areas (more than 3% job growth) around Irvine, Laguna Niguel, South Laguna, Dana Point, and Yorba Linda have disappeared this month. Significant job growth only appears in the following areas: a large area south to Irvine, New Port Beach, Costa Mesa, Tustin, a triangle region between Anaheim and Garden Grove, another triangle region east of Anaheim, Los Alamitos, a small area close to the northern county line, Portola Hills and the narrow and long area east to it. On the other hand, Anaheim has stepped back to the idling status (-1% to 1% job growth) in December 2012 together with a large area between Buena Park and Fullerton and a small area west to Portola Hills where still remain idling.
SAN DIEGO COUNTY
- The year-over-year job growth in San Diego County has weakened this month with the average job increase rate dropped from 1.96% in November to 1.61% in December 2012.
- The whole county still appears green, however, dark green areas (more than 3% significant job growth) only appear in Alpine, Coronado, Jamul, area between Lemon Grove and La Presa, and area between Eucalyptus Hills and Suncrest in December compared to November where dark green areas have spread to almost half of the county. In addition to San Luis Rey, area east of Carlsbad, and the area close the south border, where had seen idling status (-1% to 1% job growth) in November, a small area between Casa de Oro and La Presa has stepped back to idling in December.
The researchers combined today’s data release on employment by industry from the California Employment Development Department with business pattern data by Zip code and industry from the U.S. Census Bureau to arrive at their projected values. The researchers point out that, given the data available to them, their projected values are only rough approximations of the true values, and that accuracy is higher for counties with larger populations. Despite those shortcomings, the observed patterns should still be helpful for decision makers in politics, businesses and organizations to determine where to best direct their efforts.
About the University of Redlands Institute for Spatial Economic Analysis (ISEA)
The Institute for Spatial Economic Analysis (ISEA) serves regional, national and global business and government leaders in their needs to better understand how socio-economic phenomena affect their communities. A division of the University of Redlands School of Business, ISEA publishes ongoing, timely reports covering retail, employment, housing, logistics and other special topics. A key distinction is its ability to illustrate economic trends and patterns through the use of geo-spatial mapping techniques. In addition, ISEA’s ability to provide Zip code level analysis for many of its reports provides unprecedented detail. Current ISEA economic data and interactive maps may be found at http://isea.redlands.edu/.