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ISEA Employment Analysis

ISEA

Southern California Sees Strong Month-Over-Month Job Growth

Monthly Changes in SoCal Outpace Silicon Valley | Year-Over-Year Changes Still Insufficient to Compensate for Recession Loss

11/18/2011

Author: Bing Bai | Faculty Fellow at the Institute for Spatial Economic Analysis, University of Redlands, School of Business

This month, anĀ ISEA study finds month-over-month job growth in Southern California outpaces Silicon Valley but is not quite as strong as in the San Francisco area where 1% to 3% job growth is seen. The year-over-year job growth in Southern California has concentrated in San Diego and Orange County with modest improvement in all other areas. Nonetheless, the most significant year-over-year job growth is still seen in the Bay Area where most areas in San Jose and Santa Cruz have seen more than 3% job growth. However, there are still areas in Northern California and the Central Valley that have seen job losses this month. In particular, a few pockets in Sacramento and Fresno have seen significant job losses (more than 3%).

Year-over-Year Metro Market Findings in Southern California


INLAND EMPIRE

  • The year-over-year job growth in Riverside and San Bernardino counties mirror last month’s map with large areas in a hold position (-1% to 1% job growth).
  • The whole area still appears very patchy. whereas some areas have seen significant job growth (more than 3%) over the last year such as a small pocket in the east of Palm Springs and a small area near Glen Avon, other areas are still shedding jobs such as northeast of Palm Springs and Fontana, and areas with job growth can neighbor those with job losses.

LOS ANGELES COUNTY

  • Los Angeles County has not changed much from last month with moderate job growth concentrated in the Central LA areas.
  • A few small pockets such as Pasadena, San Gabriel, and West Covina have seen significant job growth (more than 3%) this month, however a few places such as Coastal San Pedro and Cerritos have seen significant job losses (more than 3%) while other places such as Palmdale area have stepped into the idling status again (-1% to 1% job growth.)

ORANGE COUNTY

  • Orange County has shown consistent, modest, but geographically widespread improvement on job growth with almost all the areas in the county posing moderate job growth (1% - 3%).
  • The small area around the city of Orange has again seen job growth in excess of 3%, while the large area of North County, where we had seen idling (-1% to 1% job growth) last month, has started adding jobs in a year-over-year comparison with 1% to 3% job growth.

SAN DIEGO COUNTY

  • San Diego County has been quite consistent in its job creation, and this month is no different. Most areas show 1% to 3% year-over-year job growth and more areas showing significant job growth in excess of 3% as compared to last month.
  • In particular, areas near San Luis Rey, San Marcos, Lake San Marcos, La Mesa, Central areas in San Diego County, San Diego Downtown, and the south areas along the border have seen significant job growth of more than 3%, while only a small area south of Downtown San Diego is still shedding jobs (1% to 3% job loss.)

METHODOLOGY

The researchers combined today’s data release on employment by industry from the California Employment Development Department with business pattern data by Zip code and industry from the U.S. Census Bureau to arrive at their projected values. The researchers point out that, given the data available to them, their projected values are only rough approximations of the true values, and that accuracy is higher for counties with larger populations. Despite those shortcomings, the observed patterns should still be helpful for decision makers in politics, businesses and organizations to determine where to best direct their efforts.

Contact: Johannes Moenius, isea@redlands.edu, 909-557-8161 Director, Institute for Spatial Economic Analysis, University of Redlands, School of BusinessĀ 


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