ISEA Employment Report
California Job Growth Continues Its Drop
Year-over-Year Job Growth Appears Patchy in Southern California
Month-over-Month Job Growth Has Picked Up in Sacramento
For the month of June 2013, the University of Redlands Institute for Spatial Economic Analysis (ISEA) study finds the overall year-over-year job growth in California still remains positive with most areas showing moderate to significant job growth, however, the idling and red (negative job growth) areas have expanded further compared to May 2013. Northern California remains in a similar pattern that the coastal areas including San Francisco, San Jose, Santa Cruz, and Salinas together with Stockton, Fairfield, Napa, Madera and Merced show more than 3% significant job growth. The surrounding areas of Visalia, Fresno, Yorba City, and Sacramento still show negative job growth in June 2013. On the other hand, job growth rate in Southern California has dropped further in most regions compared to May 2013 with more areas showing idling status (-1% to 1% job growth) such as the northern area in San Diego County, the central region in Riverside County and the western area in San Bernardino County. The whole region appears even patchier in June 2013 i.e. areas showing moderate (1% to 3%) or significant job increases (more than 3%) are right next to areas showing idling (-1% to 1% job growth) or even job losses.
The overall month-over-month job growth in Southern California still remains idling (-1% to 1% job growth) in June 2013 with very limited locations showing positive job growth. The significant job losses (more than 3%), which had concentrated in the central region in Los Angeles County including Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, South Pasadena, Glendale, and Pasadena in May 2013, have spread out in a few isolated pockets in Los Angeles County and Inland Empire in June 2013. The overall month-over-month job growth in Northern California appears patchy with most regions still showing idling (-1% to 1% job growth) in June 2013. Sacramento area, Auburn, and Nevada City have stepped out of idling status (-1% to 1% job growth) with most regions showing 1% to 3% job increase. However on the other hand Santa Rosa, Fresno, Visalia, and Merced have stepped back to the idling status (-1% to 1% job growth). Even worse, a small pocket in San Francisco, the area south to Redwood City and the northeastern area in Madera have started showing negative job growth in June 2013.
Year-over-Year Metro Market Findings in Southern California
- The year-over-year job growth in Riverside and San Bernardino counties has decreased further this month with the average job growth rate dropping 0.96% in May 2013 to 0.62% in June 2013.
- The whole region appears even patchier compared to May 2013 with even more areas adding to the idling status (-1% to 1% job growth) such as the large central area in Riverside County, most regions in western area of San Bernardino County, and the eastern area of Palm Spring. The dark green areas (more than 3% job growth), where we had seen in Edgemont, Woodcrest and Palm Desert in May, have disappeared in June. Crafton has started losing jobs this month.
LOS ANGELES COUNTY
- The year-over-year job growth in Los Angeles County has slightly decreased as well this month with the average job growth rate dropped 1.13% in May 2013 to 1.02% in June 2013.
- The whole county appears very patchy that areas showing moderate (1% to 3%) or significant job increases (more than 3%) and areas showing idling (-1% to 1% job growth) or job losses are right next to each other. Although there are a few small areas being added to the dark green zone (more than 3% job growth) in June such as areas north to Burbank and area between Torrance and Gardena, the red zone (negative job growth) has expanded as well such that a large area west to Santa Clarita, the area north of Pasadena and a small area to the east of Beverly Hills have started shedding jobs in June. Cerritos, the small location south of Los Angeles and the small pocket between Seal Beach and Cypress remain in the red zone (negative job growth) in June.
- The year-over-year job growth in Orange County has slightly increased in June with an average job growth rate of 1.82% this month, compared to the job growth rate of 1.73% in May 2013.
- The job growth in the whole county this month almost mirrors May 2013 except that a small area in the corner east to Villa Park has stepped to idling status (-1% to 1% job growth). Dark green areas (more than 3% job growth) still appear in Costa Mesa, Newport Beach, Portola Hills, Aliso Viejo, area close to the northern county border, area between Yorba Linda and Villa Park near the mountain area, and the narrow region east to Rancho Santa Margarita. On the other hand, Anaheim and the area between Westminster and Stanton still remain in idling status (-1% to 1% job growth) in June.
SAN DIEGO COUNTY
- The year-over-year job growth in San Diego County has dropped further this month with the average job growth rate decreased 1.59% in May 2013 to 1.48% in June 2013.
- Most regions in the county still appear light green (1% to 3% job growth) with dark green zone (more than 3% significant job growth) shrinking to Downtown San Diego only. The yellow zone (-1% to 1% job growth) has expanded to more areas on the northern and central region of the county including Fallbrook, San Luis Rey, Rancho Santa Fe, Del Dios, Jesmond Dene, Ramona, area between Vista and Carlsbad, Eucalyptus Hills, Moreno, Santee Johnstown, Coronado, and a small area south to Downtown San Diego. A small location between San Luis Rey and Bonsall has started shedding jobs in June.
The researchers combined today’s data release on employment by industry from the California Employment Development Department with business pattern data by Zip code and industry from the U.S. Census Bureau to arrive at their projected values. The researchers point out that, given the data available to them, their projected values are only rough approximations of the true values, and that accuracy is higher for counties with larger populations. Despite those shortcomings, the observed patterns should still be helpful for decision makers in politics, businesses and organizations to determine where to best direct their efforts.
About the University of Redlands Institute for Spatial Economic Analysis (ISEA)
The Institute for Spatial Economic Analysis (ISEA) serves regional, national and global business and government leaders in their needs to better understand how socio-economic phenomena affect their communities. A division of the University of Redlands School of Business, ISEA publishes ongoing, timely reports covering retail, employment, housing, logistics and other special topics. A key distinction is its ability to illustrate economic trends and patterns through the use of geo-spatial mapping techniques. In addition, ISEA’s ability to provide Zip code level analysis for many of its reports provides unprecedented detail. Current ISEA economic data and interactive maps may be found at http://isea.redlands.edu/.