ISEA Employment Report
Job Growth in California Stable
Most Areas Continue Growth at Constant Pace; San Diego County Slightly Up
For the month of September, the ISEA study finds the overall year-over-year job growth in California remains stable with most areas showing positive job growth. Northern California remains the similar pattern that the coastal areas including Santa Rosa, San Francisco, San Jose, Salinas, Fairfield, and Stockton still show more than 3% significant job growth. In addition, Sacramento area has improved with more areas showing more than 3% significant job growth. Job growth in Santa Cruz has slowed down compared to August. Yuba City, Napa, and Madera had stepped back to the idling status. However, Merced still shed jobs in September. On the other hand, job growth in Southern California remains steady with most areas still appearing moderate to significant job growth. Job growth in San Diego County and Bakersfield area further strengthened in September with more areas showing more than 3% significant job growth. Ventura County improved as well with an overall 0.37% job increase rate.
The overall month-over-month job growth in Southern California has slightly improved compared to August. Most areas still stay idling (-1% to 1% job growth) except for the scattered light green areas (1% to 3% moderate job increase) in Los Angeles County and Ventura County. The small area around Perris, the small pocket in the south of Palm Springs, southwestern area in Ventura County, and the small pocket in the south of Bakersfield, where had seen 1% to 3% moderate job losses in August, stepped back to the idling status in September. However, a few locations in San Diego County have started shedding jobs this month, including Escondido, Rancho Santa Fe, downtown San Diego, Alpine, and El Cajon. The overall month-over-month job growth in Northern California slowed down in September with almost the whole region showing idling (-1% to 1% job growth) except for Madera, Napa, and Visalia where have seen moderate to significant job growth. Santa Cruz still remains in the orange zone with -1% to -3% job losses. In addition, Merced and locations near Hanford, Lakeport, Nevada City, and Marysville have started shedding jobs this month.
Year-over-Year Metro Market Findings in Southern California
- The year-over-year job growth in Riverside and San Bernardino Counties has slowed down this month with an average job increase of 1.47%.
- Most areas in the central locations in the Inland region continue to see significant job growth (more than 3%). Barstow and the central area of Palm Springs have slowed down only showing moderate job growth (1% to 3%) this month. In addition to the city of San Bernardino, Crafton, and El Casco, a few other locations have joined the idling zone (-1% to 1% job growth) including Big Bear Lake, Joshua Tree, Rancho Cucamonga, Fontana, Wildomar, and a small area south to Victorville.
LOS ANGELES COUNTY
- The year-over-year job growth in Los Angeles County has continued with the job increase rate of 1.75%.
- The patchy pattern still appears i.e. areas showing moderate (1% to 3%) or significant job increases (more than 3%) are next to the areas showing idling (-1% to 1%). Dark green areas (more than 3% job increase) have shifted around in September. For example, job growth in the scattered locations near La Verne, Azusa, and Whittier have changed from the significant job increase (more than 3%) to the moderate job increase (1% to 3%). On the other hand, the dark green zone in Beverly Hills has expanded to the surrounding area. Western Santa Clarita has stepped back to the idling status. The small area south to the Los Angeles city is still shedding jobs this month.
- The year-over-year job growth in Orange County has still shown the steady pattern this month with an average job increase of 1.79%.
- The whole county appears green this month except for a small area near the mountain (shown orange on the map) showing moderate job losses (-1% to -3%). Job growth in La Palma, Cypress, and Anaheim has slowed down this month only showing moderate job growth (1% to 3%). The dark green zone near Costa Mesa has shifted around. Significant job growth (more than 3%) still appear in the following areas: Los Alamitos, Fullerton, Yorba Linda, areas near Anaheim, Rossmoor, Tustin, Irvine, Newport Beach, large area between Irvine and Emerald Bay, Laguna Beach, South Laguna, San Juan Capistrano, Portola Hills and the narrow and long area east to it. In addition, Huntington Beach has been added to the dark green zone (more than 3% job growth).
SAN DIEGO COUNTY
- The year-over-year job growth in San Diego County has improved this month with more areas showing more than 3% significant job growth.
- Alpine, Lemon Grove, the area north to downtown San Diego, Coronado, and the area at the corner of I-15 and I-8 have still seen significant job growth (more than 3%) in September. In addition, Escondido, Ramona, Oceanside, Leucadia, Encinitas, Del Mar, a large area along I-15 and I-805, and almost the whole area east to Johnstown have been added to the dark green zone (more than 3% job increase). Imperial Beach only shows moderate job growth (1% to 3%). Area east to Escondido has stepped out of the idling status showing moderate job growth (1% to 3%). However a few pockets including San Luis Rey, area east of Carlsbad, area south to Casa de Oro, and the area close the south border still appear idling (-1% to 1% job growth) in September.
The researchers combined today’s data release on employment by industry from the California Employment Development Department with business pattern data by Zip code and industry from the U.S. Census Bureau to arrive at their projected values. The researchers point out that, given the data available to them, their projected values are only rough approximations of the true values, and that accuracy is higher for counties with larger populations. Despite those shortcomings, the observed patterns should still be helpful for decision makers in politics, businesses and organizations to determine where to best direct their efforts.
About the Institute for Spatial Economic Analysis at University of Redlands
The Institute for Spatial Economic Analysis (ISEA) serves regional, national and global business and government leaders in their needs to better understand how socio-economic phenomena affect their communities. A division of the University of Redlands School of Business, ISEA publishes ongoing, timely reports covering retail, employment, housing, logistics and other special topics. A key distinction is its ability to illustrate economic trends and patterns through the use of geo-spatial mapping techniques. In addition, ISEA’s ability to provide Zip code level analysis for many of its reports provides unprecedented detail. Current ISEA economic data and interactive maps may be found at http://isea.redlands.edu/.