University of Redlands
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Email this pageExpert Election Prediction by U of R Student
Contact: Katie Ismael
Katie_Ismael@redlands.edu
(909) 748-8387 (Phone)
September 8, 2008 -
Most members of the mainstream media were blindsided by Republican presidential nominee John McCain’s announcement that Sarah Palin is his running mate.
But a University of Redlands government and philosophy student predicted the stunner pick on her political blog the night before it was announced.
Senior Jessica Austin said she was initially tipped off by a friend while instant messaging on the social networking site Facebook. She went on to make the prediction on her blog, located on the Web site www.redcounty.com at about 10:30 p.m. Thursday.
On her blog, Austin reported she had confirmed the Alaska governor had chartered a jet from Alaska to Dayton, Ohio, where McCain made the announcement.
"I knew that putting it out there was a little risky," she said. "There were people that warned me I would regret writing the post if I was wrong. But deep down, I just knew. From a strategic standpoint, it just made sense to me."
Austin said that Palin was already on her political radar, and that she had been hopeful about Palin's selection, even though the governor initially seemed like a long shot in the vice presidential sweepstakes.
"I was definitely aware of her," Austin said. "I have a lot of respect for her leadership."
Ed Wingenbach, a University of Redlands political science professor currently teaching a freshman course titled "How to Predict an Election," said he was wowed by Palin's prediction.
"It was a pretty extraordinary pick," said Wingenbach, an associate professor and chair of the government department. "Most other news organizations didn't even list Palin in any of their potential top five possible candidates, and even specialized analysts didn’t have her as a likely pick."
Austin is active in the Inland political community, and was recently named to the City of Redlands' Building and Economic Development Advisory Commission. She posts almost daily to her blog, commenting on local news and also providing links to press releases, news articles and other information.
Her Red County blog is part of the Partisan Media Group, which runs a network of 18 blogs. The Tustin-based group also has a quarterly magazine that is distributed primarily in Orange County. The organization describes itself as having a "center-right" approach and focuses on issues including business, lifestyle, politics, education and real estate.
After graduation, Austin said she plans to study political science in graduate school.
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